NBA Rookie-Scale Extensions + Predictions for Ongoing Negotiations

The rookie-scale extension window for the top 30 players from the 2021 NBA draft class officially started on July 6 and has an October 21 deadline.

Some have already locked in deals.

Back in March, B/R predicted who would extend and for how much. Today, with the NBA transaction mill seemingly halted ahead of the new season (and to allow football its September spotlight), is the time to review how the market has shifted and how teams are adjusting to the new restrictive rules of the 2023 collective bargaining agreement.

The following list grades the deals that have already been executed, and it also predicts those still pending.

Negotiating/Grading Guidelines

With the NBA's new broadcast deal starting ahead of the 2025-26 season, the salary cap is widely expected to climb 10 percent from this year's $140.6 million to $154.6 million.

A player's standard max is 25 percent of the cap or a projected $38.7 million for 2025-26, paying out up to $224.2 million over five seasons. Should a player qualify by earning MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or an All-NBA team honor, that max can climb to a $46.4 million starting salary ($269.1 million total).

• Potential "Supermax"—Three players signed with that extra bump—but only Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers) and Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) reached the criteria. LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets) signed a similar deal, but his salary this season starts at $35.1 million, while the other two will earn $42.2 million.
• Near-Max—Desmond Bane (Memphis Grizzlies) will earn $34 million this season but has $1.1 million in unlikely incentives that could match Ball's salary.
• Large: Devin Vassell (San Antonio Spurs) and Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves) represent the next tier, with lucrative incentivized five-year deals of $135-$146 million and $131-$136 million, respectively.
• Mid-Tier—Most of the remaining extensions started near the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE), currently at $12.8 million, and ranged from three to four-year deals. Those include Isaiah Stewart II (Detroit Pistons) at $15 million starting salary, Deni Avdija (extended with the Washington Wizards, traded to the Portland Trail Blazers) at $15.6 million (descending annually), Onyeka Okongwu (Atlanta Hawks) at $14 million, Josh Green (initially with Dallas Mavericks, now Hornets) at $13.7 million and Cole Anthony (Orlando Magic) at $13 million and Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) at a flat $11 million per year.
• Small—Payton Pritchard's deal with the Boston Celtics looks like a steal for the team, starting at $6.7 million. Zeke Nnaji is at a good number ($8.9 million, with a mostly descending salary) but didn't make as significant an impact with the Denver Nuggets as Pritchard in Boston.
• Typically, the big deals happen right away (July), but the rest take a few months, and many are resolved on the deadline. Last year, not every eligible player was extended, leading to restricted free agency. Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia 76ers), Immanuel Quickley (Toronto Raptors) and Patrick Williams (Chicago Bulls) signed new contracts in July.
• Others moved on to other teams, and some may not even stay in the NBA this coming year—something to remember when reviewing the list of unresolved players.